Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 81.2%
Prognostiker
100
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 58 Minuten
Verzogert14. Mai 22, 01:21 UTC1. Jan. 30, 06:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Germany stops giving Ukraine heavy weapons, will Ukraine still exist in 2030?
Manifold MarketsAfter the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsHow will the war in Ukraine end?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists.
- Unless they have a permanent ceasefire and <10 fatalities per year, like Korea.
- Regardless of treaties, the war "ends" when there is a 1 year period with <10 combat fatalities.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75.5%
- New People (NL)-4.0pt21.4%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.5pt2%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 423.353,7 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-1.0pt13%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 95.404,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA-0.1pt7%
- International Court of Justice+1.1pt6%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 81% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030? entschieden?
- Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists.