Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 83%
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet17. Okt. 23, 01:14 UTC2. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Israel recognize a state of Palestine before the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
PolymarketWho will recognize Palestine before 2027?
KalshiFIFA U-15 Tournament: Israel U-15 vs Palestine U-15 Opening Match?
LimitlessRegeln
Resolves based on whether the wikipedia page "State of Palestine" uses the past tense, as in "The State of Palestine was..." instead of the current "The State of Palestine is..."
- I will also use common sense to avoid vandalism etc and to resolve the question of whether it still exists but the present/past tense is the main criteria by which I will judge the question in order to avoid controversy.
Offene Märkte
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 25,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 719.579,4 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 97.764,5 €
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 weitere Ergebnisse
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the State of Palestine still exist on Jan 1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 83% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the State of Palestine still exist on Jan 1, 2030? entschieden?
- Will the State of Palestine still exist on Jan 1, 2030? soll am 2. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the State of Palestine still exist on Jan 1, 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves based on whether the wikipedia page "State of Palestine" uses the past tense, as in "The State of Palestine was..." instead of the current "The State of Palestine is..."