Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
One-OffGeopolitikRussland / Ukraine3J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 08:04 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 90%
Nein 90%Prognostiker
47
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet18. Jan. 23, 12:13 UTC1. Jan. 30, 12:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
Manifold MarketsWill Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia target Kyiv on?
PolymarketRegeln
For clarity, if a part of Russia secedes as an independent state this would resolve positively.
- If Crimea went back to Ukraine that would not be enough.
- If Crimea became an independent country, that would.