Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?
PolitikOne-OffEuropaUS-PolitikRussland / UkraineGeopolitikWetterRohstoffe3JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseTuva 45.2%Führend unter 13 Optionen
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
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Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert17. Okt. 25, 10:23 UTC30. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
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Manifold MarketsWill the Cape declare independence before 2030?
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PolymarketWill Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- An option resolves to YES if, for that region, all three of the following occur on or before 31 December 2039:
- A formal independence referendum is held.
- Defined as a formal vote organized in-person or online by a recognized local authority, an established exile government, or a clearly significant grassroots movement.
- The referendum must pose the explicit question of secession and full sovereignty from the Russian Federation.
- A majority of valid votes cast must be “Yes.”