Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
GeopolitikOne-OffMiddle East3MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 59.6%
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet12. Aug. 26, 16:29 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
Manifold MarketsNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
PolymarketWho will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
PolymarketNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
LimitlessWho will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Limitless[PROP BETS] New US-Iran Peace Talks
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the first round of official direct or indirect diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran (including mediated talks via third parties like Oman, Qatar, or Pakistan) occurring on or after August 3, 2026, results in a ceasefire agreement that successfully lasts for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Detailed Rules for Resolution:
- Eligible Negotiations: The negotiations must be widely recognized by major international media outlets as official diplomatic efforts (whether direct or indirect/mediated) between representatives of the U.S. and Iran aimed at de-escalation, conflict resolution, or establishing a truce.
- Ceasefire Definition: The negotiations must result in a mutually agreed ceasefire or pause in hostilities.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75.5%
- New People (NL)-4.0pt21.4%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.5pt2%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 423.353,7 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-1.0pt13%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 95.404,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA-0.1pt7%
- International Court of Justice+1.1pt6%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 60% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days? entschieden?
- Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria