Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 95.4%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 21 Minuten
3. Juli 26, 17:18 UTC3. Juli 27, 17:15 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Is Alex going to resolve his market about Russia's drone attack on Poland fairly?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine attack Belarus by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurUnited States to attack North Korea in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRegeln
https://archive.is/BkISd
- Resolves YES if any of the following occur:
- Russian or Belarussian soldiers cross into Polish territory without explicit Polish permission
- Critical Polish infrastructure is targeted in a kinetic attack with Russian or Belarussian missiles or drones
- A "simulated air strike" from Russia or Belarus in which Poland activates its air defenses
- Resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 95% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year? entschieden?
- Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year? soll am 3. Juli 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: https://archive.is/BkISd