Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 88.8%
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Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet16. Mai 25, 19:17 UTC30. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump meet with Pope Leo in 2026?
PredictItWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV explicitly mentions Nick Bostrom in any official papal document, speech, or publication.
- The document has to be authored or signed off by the pope.
- The market will resolve to "No" if there is no such mention by the end of 2027.
- Reliable sources for verification include official Vatican publications: https://www.vatican.va https://press.vatican.va
- As an example of citation see the following text in which Pope Francis cites John McCarthy and Alan Turing.: https://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/congregations/cfaith/documents/rc_ddf_doc_20250128_antiqua-et-nova_en.html
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 267.332,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 95.554 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 272.022,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 211.089,8 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 89% (Stand: 20. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? entschieden?
- Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? soll am 30. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria