Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 88%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet16. Mai 25, 19:23 UTC30. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump be excommunicated by Pope Leo XIV in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump meet with Pope Leo in 2026?
PredictItWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV explicitly mentions CAIS Statement on AI Risk in any official papal document, speech, or publication.
- The document has to be authored or signed off by the pope.
- The market will resolve to "No" if there is no such mention by the end of 2027.
- Reliable sources for verification include official Vatican publications: https://www.vatican.va https://press.vatican.va
- As an example of citation see the following text which Pope Francis cites the famous Dartmouth proposal: https://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/congregations/cfaith/documents/rc_ddf_doc_20250128_antiqua-et-nova_en.html
