Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
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Nein 86%Prognostiker
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Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 19 Minuten
3. Feb. 25, 01:14 UTC16. Juni 27, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiWill Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves N/A if there is no o4 model. o4 is defined as any compute setting on the o4 model.
- Something like deepresearch (which is based on o3/o4) would also resolve yes.
- Update 2025-04-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): o4 mini Exclusion Clarification
- o4 is defined as any compute setting on the o4 model.
- o4 mini is explicitly excluded from being considered as o4.