Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
45%+ 88%+7.3ptFührend unter 5 Optionen
Marktqualitat
60 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
1963,5 €
Liquidität
4251,8 €
Mittlere LiquiditätSpread
2.0 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
1
7d-Änderung
-0.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
23. Juli 26, 22:48 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
KalshiWill Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
- The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/.
- If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again.
- If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used.