Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
45%+ 66%+1.0%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Marktqualitat
79 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
1781,9 €
Liquidität
13.356,5 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
65.0% / 66.0%
Spread
1.5%
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten
23. Juli 26, 22:4831. Dez. 26, 23:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
45%+66%
Volumentrend
$2.0k24. Juli3T Daten26. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
6180,4 €By Dec 31, 2025: 74%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
4281 €SpaceX: 86%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?
659,3 €Ja: 11.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
244,9 €No [Anthropic does not IPO in 2026]: 31.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
0 €SpaceX: 97%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
AI data center in space by ?
0 €December 31, 2027: 15%FUTUUR
FUTUURIn diesen Themen aktiv
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
- The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/.
- If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again.
- If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used.