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Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?
14.2 Pkt. (24h)One-OffWissenschaftGesellschaft & Kultur
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
2%+ (Resolves start of 2027) 69.6%+14.2ptFührend unter 4 Optionen
2%+ (Resolves start of 2027) 69.6%+14.2ptPrognostiker
6
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+14.2 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet10. Nov. 23, 19:48 UTC2. Jan. 00, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiRegeln
Resolves annually to Metaculus' community prediction.
- Feel free to add new years and integer thresholds in a matching format.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/578/?theme=light)