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Ja 80.5%
Ja 80.5%Prognostiker
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Veraltet26. Jan. 24, 18:59 UTC2. Feb. 30, 04:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Best LLM at the end of the decade?
KalshiClaude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)
Manifold MarketsWill the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if Meta deploys an LLM, whatever name it might have, that is at least as strong as its best other LLM, either as a ChatBot, API access or as clearly used in another consumer product offering, and within 30 days of that deployment it is not possible to download the model weights.
- Resolves to NO if Meta releases the model weights to a model it self-describes as AGI, or that clearly constitutes AGI as per OpenAI's definition as of 1 Jan 2024.
- Also resolves to NO if Meta fails to release what they claim to be substantially improved LLM for 36 consecutive months, or for 24 months after the market closes.
- Resolves to N/A on 1/1/35 if somehow none of the above criteria are met (to be safe).