Mittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
Top 10 · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Referenzwert
Top 10 96%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Top 10 96%Marktqualitat
61 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
4606,3 €
Liquidität
8128,5 €
Mittlere LiquiditätOpen Interest
4596,4 $
Geld / Brief
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Top 10Spread
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Kommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 41 Minuten
28. Okt. 26, 21:54 UTC1. Juli 27, 03:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 0,1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Nein
Größte Inhaber
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Markttiefe · Top 10
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketKimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketWill Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before November 5, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat version number will Anthropic's next Claude Fable model carry? (released by Nov 30, 2026)
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None), in the "Models" view, and with no other filters applied will be used to resolve this market.
- A model debuts within the specified top ranks if its displayed rank at the check time is equal to or better than the specified rank (for example, a displayed rank of 4 is within the the named outcome and the the named outcome).
