KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertMittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
United States · —
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Gespeicherter Preis
United States 66%Führend unter 5 Optionen
United States 66%Marktqualitat
32 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Open Interest
1027,3 $
Niedriges Open InterestGeld / Brief
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United StatesSpread
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 31 Minuten
9. Okt. 26, 00:00 UTC31. Dez. 29, 14:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Markttiefe · United States
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Best LLM at the end of the decade?
KalshiWill Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)
Manifold MarketsWill the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?
Manifold MarketsWill the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
If an AI lab based in the United States has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. A model counts for the country where its credited organization is headquartered or, for a division, subsidiary or brand, where its ultimate parent is headquartered (e.g., Google DeepMind counts for the United States). If that country is not listed, every market resolves No.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- United States
- If an AI lab based in the United States has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- China
- If an AI lab based in China has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- United Arab Emirates
- If an AI lab based in the United Arab Emirates has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- South Korea
- If an AI lab based in South Korea has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- France
- If an AI lab based in France has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.