Dieser Markt wurde entschieden: No (99%)
Entschieden: 17.10.2026, 06:24
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Gewinnausgang
No
7 Tage vorher
—
24 Stunden vorher
—
Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 17.10.2026, 21:20 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Yes1%
No99%
Gewonnen
Verloren
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will OpenAI be remembered as the Altavista of AI?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
Manifold MarketsTyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Cowen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRegeln
Claim is here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-21/ai-safety-is-dead-and-chuck-schumer-faces-risks?utm_content=view&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter, entitled 'The AI safety movement is dead.'
- "May 2024 will be remembered as the month that the AI safety movement died.
- It will also be remembered as the time when the work of actually making artificial intelligence safer began in earnest."
- Resolves to YES if this view holds up as of the deadline (or, given lack of loans, if we are confident that it will hold up and this consistently trades 'at the interest rate' on the high end for over a month).
- Resolves to NO if this view does not hold up as of the deadline (or, given lack of loans, if we are confident it will NOT hold up and this consistently trades 'at the interest rate' on the low end for over a month, or if we have sufficiently strong accomplishments to show that the statement is already shown to be false.)
- I expect the answer to this to be obvious and want to be able to make markets here without large time commitments, so I will only spend time clarifying terms if there is large market activity and the probability of uncertainty seems substantial.
