Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 83%
Nein 83%Marktqualitat
33 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
1039,4 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
4
Kommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiWill Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (10/18 - 10/24)
KalshiTrump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic, OpenAI and DeepMind voluntarily act in accordance with Trump’s executive order 14409 for all of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If, between January 1, 2026 00:00:00 UTC and December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC, the United States federal government enacts a law or issues an executive order that introduces at least one new AI safety requirement on any private entity developing or deploying AI models — based on the model's general capability level (or its classification as a general-purpose model) — this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- An "AI safety requirement" is a requirement intended to prevent material harm from an AI system's general capabilities or misuse potential, such as mandated risk assessments, safety evaluations, red-teaming, incident reporting, deployment constraints, or access controls.
- The Primary Designated Source is the United States Code / Federal Register record of the enacted statute or executive order, accessible via congress.gov, federalregister.gov, and whitehouse.gov.
- Requirements about privacy, copyright, federal procurement, or those imposed based on a specific application, audience, or content category (rather than the model's general capability level) do not count.
- Proposed bills, executive orders that have been rescinded before the deadline, or court-stayed orders that are vacated before the deadline do not count toward Yes.