Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
One-OffRegulierungKIHealth & MedicinePolitik3MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 91.7%
Prognostiker
25
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet16. Juni 26, 18:56 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Futuur🏛️ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? 🏛️
Manifold MarketsStephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?
Manifold MarketsWill any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
PolymarketWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between June 16, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the United States federal government enacts a new federal law (signed by the President or passed over veto) or a federal agency publishes a final, binding rule in the Federal Register that specifically regulates, mandates pre-release vetting/testing for, or establishes a licensing framework for "Mythos-class", "Mythos+", or equivalent frontier AI models (specifically those characterized by advanced autonomous cybersecurity, hacking, or biosecurity capabilities similar to or exceeding Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5).
- To qualify as "enacting regulation," the action must:
- Be a newly passed federal statute (act of Congress) or a finalized federal agency regulation published in the Federal Register.
- Establish mandatory requirements, licensing, or vetting specifically targeting these high-capability models (e.g., "Mythos-class" or "Mythos+" models).
- The following do NOT qualify for a YES resolution:
Offene Märkte
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 182.343,6 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,4 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Zugehörige Kryptos
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 92% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026? entschieden?
- Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria