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Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

RegulierungOne-Off3Mon

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Ja 90.4%

Prognostiker

5

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden

Veraltet

10. Apr. 26, 21:40 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Verwandte Märkte

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Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

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Will the Clarity Act become law?

Regeln

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a publicly or commercially available AI system is widely recognized by relevant experts, technical benchmarks, or industry consensus as having "comparable cyber capabilities" to the Mythos system.
Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
"Comparable cyber capabilities" will be assessed based on the ability of an AI system to perform automated, end-to-end vulnerability research, exploit development, and cyber-offensive operations at a performance level similar to or exceeding those demonstrated by Mythos as of April 2026. "Widely available" means accessible to the general public, developers, or enterprise customers via API, software license, or open-source release.
In the event of ambiguity regarding the capabilities of Mythos or the successor systems, resolution will rely on consensus from credible cybersecurity researchers, AI safety organizations, or major technical publications (e.g., reports from NIST, CISA, or peer-reviewed AI/security literature).
If no clear consensus exists, the market will resolve based on the preponderance of evidence at that time.

Offene Märkte

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

No+2.0pt86%
Yes-2.0pt14%

Gesamtvolumen: 12,4 Mio. €
24h-Volumen: 182.343,6 €

Anthropic IPO by which date?

December 31,-1.0pt90%
December 15,+3.5pt90%
November 30,85%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Gesamtvolumen

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

Before 2028+3.0pt67%
Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
Before Jan 1, 202795%
Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

Gesamtvolumen: 1,4 Mio. €

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
$1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
$1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

Häufige Fragen

Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available??: Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 90% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
Wann wird Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? entschieden?: Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
Wie wird Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? abgerechnet?: Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria

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