Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
One-OffKI16JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 72%
Prognostiker
33
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet20. Aug. 23, 22:09 UTC2. Jan. 43, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Explosive growth bet
Manifold MarketsWill Stephen Hsu's kids become friends with Bryan Caplan's kids?
Manifold MarketsWill Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus released by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Details in this blog post.
- Barnett wins if:
- By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.416,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 156.321,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 26.110,1 €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 72% (Stand: 21. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043? entschieden?
- Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043? soll am 2. Januar 2043 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Details in this blog post.