Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 79.9%
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet28. Juli 23, 08:54 UTC1. Jan. 43, 21:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill the fast-growth side win the benjaminmoll growth bet?
Manifold MarketsWill "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
Manifold MarketsWill Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
KalshiWill the S&P finish positive this year?
KalshiRegeln
Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- Ted thinks there’s very little chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- On Twitter, they agreed to a bet.
- Tweet thread.
- Economist Bryan Caplan says it's very unlikely, because "How is Gross World Product supposed to more than double in a year in a world where you have to wait a decade just to assemble the right building permits?"
- By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.416,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 156.321,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 26.110,1 €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Explosive growth bet?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 80% (Stand: 21. September 2026).
- Wann wird Explosive growth bet entschieden?
- Explosive growth bet soll am 1. Januar 2043 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Explosive growth bet abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.