Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 94% (Stand: 20. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? entschieden?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? soll am 31. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.

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Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: To summarize:

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change+1.0pt86%
• 25 bps increase-1.0pt14%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

Gesamtvolumen

45,4 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

1,2 Mio. €

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above -0.1%98.5%
• Above 0.0%-1.0pt93%
• Above 0.1%-1.0pt83%

KALSHI

CPI YoY in November

• Above 3.3%97.5%
• Above 3.0%98.5%
• Above 3.1%98.5%

KALSHI

Core CPI YoY in December

• Above 2.1%98.5%
• Above 2.4%94.5%
• Above 2.2%97.5%

KALSHI

CPI in December

• Above 0.0%+2.0pt93%
• Above -0.1%91.5%
• Above 0.1%-1.0pt74.5%

POLYMARKET

October Inflation China - Annual

• 0.9% to 1.0%-3.5pt43%
• 0.7% to 0.8%29%
• 1.1% to 1.2%+3.0pt16%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

• CPI YoY in December
• Core CPI in October
• Core CPI in November
• Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
• U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
• How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
• Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
• How high will inflation get in 2026?
• Core CPI YoY in November
• PPI YoY - October 2026
• How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?