Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 88.6%
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet7. Apr. 26, 15:33 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there is an official determination by the U.S. government—specifically the Department of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security, or the Office of the Director of National Intelligence—that a fatal attack carried out on U.S. soil was planned, directed, or materially supported by the government of Iran or an Iranian state-backed entity.
- For the purposes of this market, "U.S. soil" is defined as the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. territories.
- If no such official determination is made, or if an attack occurs but is attributed solely to independent actors without proof of Iranian state sponsorship as defined above, the market will resolve to "No."
- The question of Iranian involvement in attacks on U.S. soil involves complex assessments by the U.S. intelligence community regarding the distinction between Iranian-backed proxy groups and direct operations by state security apparatuses, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
- The U.S. government has historically documented efforts by Iran to target dissidents and officials within the United States, often utilizing criminal networks or third-party actors.
Offene Märkte
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 23,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 312.643,5 €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 153.291 €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 89% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026? entschieden?
- Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria