Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93%
Prognostiker
35
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet21. März 26, 08:37 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
LimitlessWill China invade Taiwan by year's end?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China conducts a military invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2027.
- An invasion is defined as a large-scale, sustained military operation involving amphibious assault, airborne operations, or direct military occupation of Taiwan's territory.
- The resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Bloomberg, etc.) and official statements from Taiwan's government or the U.S. State Department.
- Isolated military incidents, exercises, blockades, or cyber operations do not constitute an invasion.
- Xi Jinping has directed the PLA to accelerate its timeline for developing invasion capabilities from 2035 to 2027.
Offene Märkte
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+17 weitere Ergebnisse
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- September 30+1.0pt80%
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+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
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- 24h-Volumen
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+20 weitere Ergebnisse
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- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will China invade Taiwan before 2027?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 93% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 entschieden?
- Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria