Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseCyberattack ($1M+) 47%Führend unter 15 Optionen
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Minuten
17. Juli 26, 6:0717. Aug. 27, 6:07
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Cyberattack ($1M+)47%
Volumentrend
$42117. Juli7T Daten28. Juli
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I've seen a lot of concern about the release of Kimi K3, an open source model said to be comparable to Claude Mythos/Fable or GPT 5.6 Sol.
- Will these concerns be borne out?
- For the purposes of this market, "mass murder" includes biological or conventional terrorist attacks, including mass shootings, but not conventional military or genocide campaigns where Kimi is used in planning or targeting.
- I'll take a broad view of causation; any attack in which Kimi K3 (including a fine-tune, abliteration, or other modified version) is proven to have been used for planning or execution in any substantial form will be considered a "result", even if the information was available in other ways.
- To simplify resolution, if nobody presents compelling evidence for YES within 1 year, this market will resolve NO.