Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 00:47 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseCyberattack ($1M+) 42.6%Führend unter 15 Optionen
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet17. Juli 26, 06:07 UTC17. Aug. 27, 06:07 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
I've seen a lot of concern about the release of Kimi K3, an open source model said to be comparable to Claude Mythos/Fable or GPT 5.6 Sol.
- Will these concerns be borne out?
- For the purposes of this market, "mass murder" includes biological or conventional terrorist attacks, including mass shootings, but not conventional military or genocide campaigns where Kimi is used in planning or targeting.
- I'll take a broad view of causation; any attack in which Kimi K3 (including a fine-tune, abliteration, or other modified version) is proven to have been used for planning or execution in any substantial form will be considered a "result", even if the information was available in other ways.
- To simplify resolution, if nobody presents compelling evidence for YES within 1 year, this market will resolve NO.