Werden mehr als 5.000 Bewohner des Gazastreifens infolge des aktuellen Konflikts verhungern?
GeopolitikOne-OffNaher Osten1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 85%
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet19. März 24, 14:07 UTC1. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves Yes if at any point before market close a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program asserts that 5,000 or more Gazans have starved to death for reasons directly caused by the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.
- For a bigger range:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/how-many-gazans-will-starve-to-deat)Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the ceasefire extends past a month and the current conflict appears to have ended, the market will be closed to trading but will not resolve immediately.
- Resolution will be delayed until malnutrition death totals have been updated to the standards of sources like CNN and Wikipedia.
- Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has divested from this market and will remain neutral regarding when to stop counting deaths if the situation becomes ambiguous.