Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 93%
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet10. Sept. 25, 18:17 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5?
Manifold MarketsWill any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsWhat is the NEXT country to invoke NATO Article 4?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurAnother NATO article 4 by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
//this market was created AFTER Poland invoked Article 4 in September 2025.
- Poland is excluded for this market.
- Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: "The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened." There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by the North Atlantic Treaty, the full list of which can be found here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm
- If any NATO member country invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between September 10, 2022, and December 31, 2030, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.