Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 81.3%
Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet22. Aug. 23, 05:47 UTC1. Jan. 31, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death?
Manifold MarketsWill North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Any member currently in the G20 qualifies, including the EU itself but not any EU countries that don't have independent membership.
- YES if any member does any of the following:
- ceases to exist
- becomes a government in exile, losing actual control over territory
- is annexed by another nation or entity and loses sovereign status
- minor name changes
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 81% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030? entschieden?
- Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Any member currently in the G20 qualifies, including the EU itself but not any EU countries that don't have independent membership.