Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 60.3%
Prognostiker
40
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 51 Minuten
Verzogert1. Jan. 26, 18:13 UTC17. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRegeln
Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025.
- However, they are a relatively new party whose main attraction is a single, controversial figure.
- How unstable is the party, and its lead in the polls?
- Resolves YES if Reform UK falls and then stays below 20% in the Politico Poll of Polls for a period of 14 consecutive days, all of which must fall within 2026 (i.e. the streak cannot start after 17th December).
- Otherwise resolves NO on 17th December.
- This requires polling <20% i.e. not <=20%
