Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 74.9%
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Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
13. Aug. 24, 23:58 UTC15. Aug. 29, 22:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Reform UK vote percent
KalshiNext UK by-election called by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Win as in forms the next government.
- In the case of a coalition, if reform is the larger party in the coalition I will resolve yes, otherwise if they are the minor party in the coalition I will cancel the market and return funds.
- This seems fairest to me as even if they are in government I wouldn’t say they have technically “won” being a the smaller party of a coalition, and they haven’t really lost, either.
- List of my other reform related markets:
- https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-win-less-than-50-seats
- https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-uk-and-the-conservative
Offene Märkte
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 85.328,8 €
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 184.920,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.4pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+43.3pt94%
- No-43.3pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 21.212,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 20.302,3 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.0pt78.2%
- 1.25T–1.5T-3.0pt8.9%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Reform win the next UK election??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 75% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Reform win the next UK election? entschieden?
- Will Reform win the next UK election? soll am 15. August 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Reform win the next UK election? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Win as in forms the next government.