Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Suella Braverman 100%Führend unter 9 Optionen
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet14. Jan. 26, 11:11 UTC14. Aug. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketNigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for any UK political figure who defects to Reform UK before the date of the next election.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Reform UK and reporting in established media outlets (BBC, Telegraph, Guardian).
- Each answer resolves independently, multiple politicians can resolve YES.
- I've added some people who have been speculated in the past, feel free to add more as I'm sure more figures will be named in future.
- I kept the title vague: feel free to add any people who have at any time been elected to a position in the UK (Councillor, Mayor, PCC, MP, MSP, AM, MS), any sitting or previously sitting lords, or any high profile aides/political employees (Morgan McSweeney, Dominic Cummings types).