Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Before Jan 1, 2027 15%
Marktqualitat
77 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
5622,6 €
Liquidität
4634,4 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
22.0% / 23.0%
Spread
4.5%
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Minuten
7. Juli 26, 16:371. Jan. 27, 4:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Before Jan 1, 202715%
Volumentrend
$6.4k7. Juli2T Daten8. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Next French Presidential Election
1,5 Mio. €Marine Le Pen: 26%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
259.515,4 €United Russia (ER): 55%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
165.344 €Ja: 19%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Early elections in the UK announced?
4482,8 €Before Jan 1, 2027: 10%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Keir Starmer out as UK’s prime minister by ...?
2944,9 €December 31: 98%FUTUUR
FUTUUR
Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?
2696 €Jeremy Clarkson: 1.3%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIn diesen Themen aktiv
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If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No."