Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Häufige Fragen

Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 86% (Stand: 25. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? entschieden?

Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2028 entschieden werden.

Wie wird Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

Diesen Markt im Code oder in einem KI-Agenten nutzen

Kostenloses JSON zu diesem Markt, ohne API-Schlüssel:

KI-Agenten: pm_data_event über den MCP-Server von CoinRithm aufrufen:

POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 22-0.3pt99%
• October 24-1.8pt98%
• October 28-2.0pt88%

+17 weitere Ergebnisse

Gesamtvolumen

23,6 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

1,3 Mio. €

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 24+0.1pt100%
• October 27+0.5pt92%
• October 31-1.5pt85%

+28 weitere Ergebnisse

POLYMARKET

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

• No+0.3pt98%
• Yes-0.3pt2%

Gesamtvolumen

40,1 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

205.338,5 €

POLYMARKET

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

• No88.1%
• Yes11.9%

Gesamtvolumen

13,9 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

105.198,6 €

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

• No80.2%
• Yes19.8%

Gesamtvolumen

67,3 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

100.268,9 €

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 31-1.0pt57%
• December 31+1.4pt36%
• November 30+2.0pt25%

+20 weitere Ergebnisse

• NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
• Will Russia target Kyiv on?
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
• Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
• Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?