Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 20:05 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Before 2030-01-01 75.4%Führend unter 11 Optionen
Before 2030-01-01 75.4%Prognostiker
199
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet8. Juni 24, 21:11 UTC16. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia publicly commit to an energy-infrastructure ceasefire with Ukraine before Nov 20, 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRegeln
The full-scale war in Ukraine started on 2022-02-24.
- As of June 2024 there haven’t been any ceasefire agreements covering the whole theater of war.
- This market will resolve positively as soon as a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire is established, lasting for at least a month and covering the whole territory of Ukraine and Russia.
- Minor confrontations that don’t lead to an escalation do not count as breaking the ceasefire.
- The market is also resolved positively if one of the following happens:
- Ukraine is fully conquered by Russia (or vice vera)