Wenn Trump gewählt wird, wird es vor den Zwischenwahlen 2026 einen Waffenstillstand in der Ukraine geben?
PolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopolitikRussia / UkraineWahl1MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93.4%
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
10. März 24, 05:16 UTC4. Nov. 26, 04:59 UTC
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When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
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If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:
- This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.
- This market will resolve to NO otherwise.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-is-elected-will-there-be-1bw27ghde1)Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any cessation of fighting counts, regardless of how it comes about (including surrender scenarios).
- The market will resolve based on whether fighting stops, not the political circumstances that lead to it.
- If the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense appears to be blatantly underreporting casualties, the creator may also consider other reliable sources to determine if fighting is actually ongoing.
