US civil war before 2028 with Charlie Kirk shooting as major cause?
GeopolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikGesundheit & MedizinPolitik1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 97.1%
Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet11. Sept. 25, 22:52 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
Resolves YES only if both of the following are true:
- The United States experiences an internal armed conflict on U.S. territory that reaches “war” intensity (≥1,000 battle-related deaths in any rolling 12-month period) as defined by the UCDP/PRIO methodology (organized armed groups; “battle-related deaths” per UCDP).
- At least two major analytic sources explicitly characterize the Charlie Kirk shooting as a key / major / proximate trigger (a “spark” or “catalyst”) for the conflict’s outbreak.
- It need not be the sole or primary cause; multi-cause narratives are acceptable so long as the shooting is clearly presented as one of the main triggers.
- Accepted sources for (2) (any two or more):
- International Crisis Group (CrisisWatch or special reports)
