Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseScores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science 98.9%+48.9ptFührend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
25
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+48.9 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
3. Sept. 26, 1:542. Okt. 26, 22:59
Trends
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All benchmarks (except for Artificial Analysis and Frontier Math Open Problems) will resolve according to what OpenAI claims Astra scores on them.
- In Lieu of that, I will look to third-party benchmarking, prioritizing the benchmark's official leaderboard (like https://www.terminal-bench-science.ai/ for terminal bench science)
- [link preview]
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 457.439,8 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 8,7 Mio. €
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 149.225,9 €
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für OpenAI Astra Prop Bets?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Scores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science mit 99% (Stand: 4. September 2026).
- Wann wird OpenAI Astra Prop Bets entschieden?
- OpenAI Astra Prop Bets soll am 2. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird OpenAI Astra Prop Bets abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: All benchmarks (except for Artificial Analysis and Frontier Math Open Problems) will resolve according to what OpenAI claims Astra scores on them.