KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
At least 1520 score 69%+3.0ptFührend unter 8 Optionen
Marktqualitat
64 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
1329,2 €
Liquidität
44.226,8 €
Hohe LiquiditätSpread
3.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten
26. Juni 26, 20:00 UTC1. Jan. 27, 15:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 125.175,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 55.021,8 €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für AI capability growth this year??
- Kalshi bewertet At least 1520 score mit 69% (Stand: 11. September 2026).
- Wann wird AI capability growth this year? entschieden?
- AI capability growth this year? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird AI capability growth this year? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.