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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. KI
  3. AI capability growth this year?
AI capability growth this year?

AI capability growth this year?

9.0% (24h)KITechnikYearly6Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
At least 1650 score
At least 1650 score 9%-9.0%
Führend unter 5 Optionen
Marktqualitat

28 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0,5 €

Liquidität

204,7 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

6.0% / 9.0%

Spread

50.0%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 10 Minuten

6. Jan. 26, 15:001. Jan. 27, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

At least 1650 score9%

Regeln

If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Verwandte Märkte

AI capability growth before July?

AI capability growth before July?

127,3 €
At least 1550 score: 2%KalshiKALSHI
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

1747,3 €
Ja: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

315,9 €
Ja: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?

86,6 €
Mainstream narrative shift: 71.3%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

86,6 €
Ja: 26.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
How low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash output token price (paid tier) get in 2026?

How low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash output token price (paid tier) get in 2026?

75,9 €
$8/MTok or below: 24%KalshiKALSHI

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,863.19+2.00%SolanaSOL$65.23+1.73%EthereumETH$1,658.75+1.33%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.40%BNBBNB$601.17+2.46%XRPXRP$1.12+0.50%

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Regeln

If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.