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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. KI
  3. Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

2.0% (24h)KITechnikYearly6Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 6%-0.0%
Marktqualitat

52 / 100

Mittlere Qualität
24h-Volumen

1933,6 €

Liquidität

9612,1 €

Mittlere Liquidität
Geld / Brief

5.0% / 6.0%

Spread

20.0%

Breiter Spread
7d-Änderung

-6.0%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute

2. Apr. 26, 22:0431. Dez. 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes6%

Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
  • Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
  • Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
  • Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
  • This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.

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In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
  • Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
  • Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
  • Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
  • This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.