Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
#10 97%-0.3%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Marktqualitat
91 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
627,7 €
Liquidität
35.739,5 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
95.9% / 97.3%
Spread
1.5%
Enger Spread7d-Änderung
-2.1%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Minuten
2. Apr. 26, 21:5731. Dez. 26, 0:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
#1097%
Plattformen vergleichen· #10
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Hoch | 97% | — | 627,7 € | 35.739,5 € | vor 5 Minuten | |
 Kalshi82% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Hoch | 83% | — | 278,8 € | 33.645,2 € | vor 25 Minuten | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Kalshi
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
2.0%5Mon
83%
-2.0%17%
80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen98.608,4 €
24h-Volumen278,8 €
KALSHIRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
- This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$7143. Juli24T Daten26. Juli
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
- This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.