Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
#5 100%+61.3ptFührend unter 4 Optionen
Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
29.048,7 €
Hohe LiquiditätSpread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
2
7d-Änderung
-11.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
2. Apr. 26, 21:57 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
100%
100%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
PolymarketA Chinese company will surpass Waymo in total global robotaxi fleet size in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
- This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31??
- Polymarket bewertet #5 mit 100% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? entschieden?
- Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Wo wird Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? außerdem gelistet?
- Dieselbe Frage wird auch auf Kalshi gelistet.
