KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 89%
Marktqualitat
74 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
1300 €
Liquidität
36.761,9 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
9.0% / 11.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Minuten
4. Jan. 26, 03:00 UTC1. Jan. 27, 15:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
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PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiWill a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls)
- The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
Offene Märkte
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- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
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- 241.307,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 128.006,7 €
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- December 31,-2.0pt88%
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+7 weitere Ergebnisse
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 349.424,1 €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year??
- Kalshi bewertet No mit 89% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? entschieden?
- Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Wo wird Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? außerdem gelistet?
- Dieselbe Frage wird auch auf Polymarket gelistet.