Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja 17%-2.0%
Marktqualitat
80 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
278,8 €
Liquidität
33.648,6 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
17.0% / 18.0%
Spread
5.9%
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 29 Minuten
4. Jan. 26, 3:001. Jan. 27, 15:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes17%
Plattformen vergleichen· No
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBeste insgesamt82% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Hoch | 96% | — | 671,7 € | 34.503,8 € | vor 9 Minuten | Öffnen → |
 KalshiDiese Seite | Hoch | 83% | — | 278,8 € | 33.648,6 € | vor 29 Minuten |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
0.5%5Mon
-0.5%96%
-2.0%43%
+0.5%21%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen91.501,9 €
24h-Volumen671,7 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$3172. Juli25T Daten26. Juli
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If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.