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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. KI
  3. Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?

Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?

2.0% (24h)KITechnikYearly6Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 12%+2.0%
Marktqualitat

28 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

1,2 €

Liquidität

293,1 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

7.0% / 11.0%

Spread

57.1%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten

4. Jan. 26, 3:001. Jan. 27, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes12%

Regeln

If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.

Verwandte Märkte

Manifold Markets

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

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Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

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Ja: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

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None in 2026: 70%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

479,3 €
Ja: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

439,8 €
Claude: 67%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

216,6 €
Ja: 19.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,679.67+2.61%SolanaSOL$65.15+1.87%EthereumETH$1,652.39+2.20%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+2.06%BNBBNB$594.69+1.85%XRPXRP$1.12+0.57%

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Regeln

If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.