US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
16.0% (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffKIChina5Mon
PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 10%-0.2%
Marktqualitat
61 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
9230,4 €
Liquidität
8204,7 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
8.0% / 11.0%
Spread
37.5%
Breiter Spread7d-Änderung
+3.0%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
3. Juli 26, 21:4931. Dez. 26, 23:59
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This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
- A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US.
- Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target.
- An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US).
- A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance).