PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 88.1%-1.5pt
Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
60,6 €
Liquidität
728,8 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
10.0% / 13.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
+5.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
14. Juli 26, 02:14 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
- “Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use.
- Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
- To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US.
- A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
