Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 61.8%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 32 Minuten
20. Jan. 26, 14:06 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026?
KalshiWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Alibaba's research team (from any of their labs) officially open-sources a music generation AI model in 2026.
- The model must be released under an open license (something like Qwen) and weights made publicly available on platforms such as Hugging Face or ModelScope.
- Resolution will be verified through official Alibaba announcements, press releases, or documentation from these platforms.
- The model must be released on or before December 31, 2026.