Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 95%
Nein 95%Marktqualitat
32 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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556,9 €
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Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026?
KalshiWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiRegeln
This event predicts whether an open-source artificial intelligence model will rank first on the “Overall” leaderboard of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena at the end of December 31, 2026 (UTC-3).
- For this market, an open-source model means one whose model weights are freely available under a license permitting use, modification, and redistribution.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be the official LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard.
- If the model holding the number-one position on the LMSYS “Overall” leaderboard at the cutoff time is an open-source model, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Subsequent leaderboard updates after the cutoff will not affect resolution.