KalshiGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: Before Sep 18, 2026 (99%)
Entschieden: 07.09.2026, 15:43
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 07.09.2026, 15:05 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Before Aug 14, 20262%
Before Oct 16, 202699%
Before Sep 18, 202699%
Before Dec 1, 202699%
Before Nov 1, 202699%
Before Sep 18, 2026Gewonnen
Before Oct 1, 2026Verloren
Before Oct 16, 2026Verloren
Before Nov 1, 2026Verloren
Before Dec 1, 2026Verloren
Before Aug 14, 2026Verloren
Before Aug 21, 2026Verloren
Before Sep 1, 2026Verloren
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
Archivierte Regeln auf Ereignisebene. Die genauen Bedingungen für jedes Ergebnis sind nicht mehr verfügbar.
If OpenAI releases Astra the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:OpenAI
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," an internal model described by OpenAI as its next major frontier system, citing results including the resolution of ten previously open mathematics problems - https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/
- Qualifying Release: The Payout Criterion is satisfied if OpenAI releases a model that either (a) is publicly named "Astra" (including numbered, lettered, or suffixed variants such as "Astra 1," "Astra 6," or "GPT-6 Astra"), or (b) is confirmed by OpenAI, or by a consensus of credible reporting, to share the same underlying model — including the same base architecture, weights, or training run — as the model referenced in OpenAI's August 1, 2026 disclosure, regardless of the commercial name, safety configuration, or access tier under which it is ultimately released.
- A separately-branded release that is derived from or built on the same underlying model as the disclosed Astra model satisfies this clause even if OpenAI markets it as a distinct product (e.g., a safety-restricted variant or a differently-priced tier), provided the shared underlying model is confirmed by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.