Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Helped with >60% confidence 60.8%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet30. März 23, 02:50 UTC1. Jan. 31, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketTencent market share this week
KalshiRegeln
https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/
- 90% chance of resolving to market probs; 10% chance (through RNG), I reach out to folks and look to average the opinions of a sample of AI x-risk ~macrostrategy folks (aiming for ~30% from frontier lab alignment and governance teams; ~15% each for relevant GovAI + Rethink Priorities + Open Philanthropy researchers; ~12.5% for each of Eliezer Yudkowsky and Buck Shlegris).
- Will make a good faith effort to iterate on resolution criteria in response to feedback during first week.
- Mar 30, 8:41am: In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed AI x-risk chances? → In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 87.431,2 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 228.542,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 239.258,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 53.282,1 €
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Helped with >60% confidence mit 61% (Stand: 20. September 2026).
- Wann wird In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? entschieden?
- In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/