If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?
GeopolitikKIWeatherManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose1687 K (melting point of silicon) 26.6%Führend unter 7 Optionen
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Each option resolves YES if, within a year of artificial superintelligence (ASI) being created (and not killing us all), it is able to create computer hardware that can run the ASI itself and theoretically be able to survive these temperatures being continuously applied to the entire external surface for an arbitrary duration.
- Survival in this case means the resulting computer can resume running afterwards without outside intervention, at a level that still qualifies as an ASI, even if performance is degraded relative to before.
- The hardware can include any armour/insulation layers needed, not just the computronium itself.
- Other potentially relevant temperatures for context:
- 0 C = 273 K (melting point of water ice)
- 100 C = 373 K (boiling point of water)
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- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 1687 K (melting point of silicon) mit 27% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year? entschieden?
- If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year? soll am 1. Januar 2100 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Each option resolves YES if, within a year of artificial superintelligence (ASI) being created (and not killing us all), it is able to create computer hardware that can run the ASI itself and theoretically be able to survive these temperatures being continuously applied to the entire external surface for an arbitrary duration.