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Veraltet8. Apr. 24, 23:11 UTC1. Jan. 00, 23:59 UTC
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If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
Manifold MarketsIf ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?
Manifold MarketsWill a post AGI future (If AGI is created and doesn’t wipe out humanity) be really nice and compassionate to criminals ?
Manifold MarketsIf ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsCoeur Mining gold production in Q3
KalshiWill the federal government start mining Bitcoin?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria clarifications:
- If the moon is being mined already and it takes over those operations, I'd count that, though I suspect that scenario is relatively low probability given how rapidly accelerating AI development is right now compared to super stagnant space exploration.
- I'm defining ASI as an AI system that can outperform 100% of the human population at any cognitive task.
- Since software can be easily copied and ran in parallel or have its clock speed ramped up, it's also not hard to see how the ASI could also outperform the cumulative efforts of all of humanity combined.
- For lunar mining, I'm defining it as industrial extraction of materials from the moon for the purpose of manufacturing.
- This includes using for fuel (e.g. helium-3 for fusion reactors, hydrogen for rockets) or for supporting life (e.g. water ice).
