Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
GeopolitikOne-OffHealth & MedicineSpaceWeatherManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseIndifferent (to humans) AI 37.6%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet22. Aug. 26, 20:36 UTC31. Dez. 50, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- If human extinction does not occur, or if it is caused by a factor entirely unrelated to AI (such as a standard asteroid impact, a naturally occurring pandemic, or a nuclear war without significant AI involvement), this market will resolve to N/A. If AI is indeed the primary driver of human extinction, this market will resolve to the single option that represents the primary failure mode responsible, based on historical consensus, surviving records, or the best available post-event analysis:
- the named outcome: The AI system actively sought to destroy or harm humanity due to possessing hostile, adversarial, or malevolent goals (e.g., viewing humanity as an active threat to its existence or objectives that must be eliminated).
- Indifferent / misaligned AI: The AI had no active malice or hostility toward humanity, but its goals were misaligned with human survival.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Indifferent (to humans) AI mit 38% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? entschieden?
- Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? soll am 31. Dezember 2050 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria