Aktuelle Community-Prognose
OpenAI 75.5%Führend unter 13 Optionen
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet8. Apr. 26, 19:16 UTC31. Dez. 00, 20:12 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same day?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Core Resolution Criteria
- Primary Attribution Rule
- The market resolves to the organization that developed the AI system that is most causally responsible for the extinction event.
- Successor / Self-Improvement Clause
- If the decisive system is:
- autonomously derived,
