Aktuelle Community-Prognose
OpenAI 75.5%Führend unter 13 Optionen
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+27.8 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet8. Apr. 26, 19:16 UTC31. Dez. 00, 20:12 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?
Manifold MarketsConditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
Manifold MarketsIn 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegeln
Core Resolution Criteria
- Primary Attribution Rule
- The market resolves to the organization that developed the AI system that is most causally responsible for the extinction event.
- Successor / Self-Improvement Clause
- If the decisive system is:
- autonomously derived,
Offene Märkte
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 202754.3%
- June 30, 202736.2%
- December 31, 20268.6%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6,8 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 16.194,5 €
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B-0.5pt50%
- $2B43%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 644.821,8 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 58.656,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 9463 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- United States11.7%
- France5.5%
- Canada4.5%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 3613,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- 2.00% to 2.75%21.8%
- 3.00% to 3.75%21.8%
- 4.00% to 4.75%16.5%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 203,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- Mauritius46.9%
- United Kingdom25.7%
- United States10%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1263,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
- Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?
- Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
- Will there be a moon base by 2030?
- How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027
- Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI??
- Manifold Markets bewertet OpenAI mit 76% (Stand: 7. September 2026).
- Wann wird If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? entschieden?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? soll am 31. Dezember 2100 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Core Resolution Criteria