Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
baseCorporate ActionsOne-OffUS PoliticsChinaTechnikKIGeopolitik3MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNeither by close date 91.3%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
37
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet11. Jan. 26, 06:48 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
0.3%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketRegeln
This market asks: Which happens first – a Chinese full-scale military invasion of Taiwan (main island or significant territory seizure) OR a U.S. military invasion/occupation of any part of Greenland OR formal U.S. acquisition/control transfer (purchase, annexation, etc.)?
- - "Invade" for Taiwan: PLA launches amphibious/air assault to seize/control territory (blockades/gray-zone ops don't count unless they escalate to boots-on-ground occupation).
- - "Invade/acquire" for Greenland: U.S. forces occupy territory OR binding agreement transfers sovereignty/control of any part (per related markets like "US acquires part of Greenland").
- - "First" = earlier confirmed start date of qualifying action (via official statements, major news consensus like Reuters/AP/BBC, or gov announcements).
- - If neither qualifies by close date → resolves to "Neither".
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Greenland basing rights clarification: Gaining control over only a U.S. military base, expanding basing rights, or renewing existing base access does not count as qualifying for the Greenland side.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Neither by close date mit 91% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)? entschieden?
- Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market asks: Which happens first – a Chinese full-scale military invasion of Taiwan (main island or significant territory seizure) OR a U.S. military invasion/occupation of any part of Greenland OR formal U.S. acquisition/control transfer (purchase, annexation, etc.)?