Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
BaseKapitalmaßnahmenOne-OffUS-PolitikChinaTechnikKIGeopolitik2Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNeither by close date 92%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
38
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+1.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet11. Jan. 26, 06:48 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
Manifold MarketsChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
PolymarketBy which day will the Japanese Prime Minister apologize to China on the Taiwan issue?
Manifold MarketsWill Intel outperform Samsung if China invades Taiwan in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat companies will increase in value if China invades Taiwan in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market asks: Which happens first – a Chinese full-scale military invasion of Taiwan (main island or significant territory seizure) OR a U.S. military invasion/occupation of any part of Greenland OR formal U.S. acquisition/control transfer (purchase, annexation, etc.)?
- - "Invade" for Taiwan: PLA launches amphibious/air assault to seize/control territory (blockades/gray-zone ops don't count unless they escalate to boots-on-ground occupation).
- - "Invade/acquire" for Greenland: U.S. forces occupy territory OR binding agreement transfers sovereignty/control of any part (per related markets like "US acquires part of Greenland").
- - "First" = earlier confirmed start date of qualifying action (via official statements, major news consensus like Reuters/AP/BBC, or gov announcements).
- - If neither qualifies by close date → resolves to "Neither".
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Greenland basing rights clarification: Gaining control over only a U.S. military base, expanding basing rights, or renewing existing base access does not count as qualifying for the Greenland side.